Why Carl Webb Is Not The Somerton Man. Podcast included..

🎧 Podcast: The Carl Webb Discrepancies

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Host (0:00): Do you remember where you were in 2022 when that news broke? Australia's greatest cold case, solved. The Somerton Man finally had a name.

Specialist (0:23): But today we're here to ask a very uncomfortable question: What if that parade was for the wrong guy? We need to look at the **"Review Gap"**—the space between a flashy press release and actual peer-reviewed science.

Specialist (2:32): The body was measured on the slab at exactly 5'11". Carl's father and brother were both 5'8". Our algorithm, anchored by a 6-inch collar constant, places Carl Webb squarely at 5'8".

Specialist (11:09): The Merchant Seaman Theory explains his missing years. A "Carl Webb" is found in freighter logs serving on the SS Golden Sun in 1948.

Host (15:37): The truth has to matter more than a satisfying story. Keep questioning.

Why Carl Webb is Not the 

Somerton Man

Introduction: The Hypothesis vs. The Reality

In 2022 when the identification of Carl Webb as the Somerton Man, it was heralded as a definitive resolution. However, a rigorous examination of the primary archival records which comprised mostly of press releases suggests that things were not quite as they were made out to be. When you look beyond the genealogies and "lookalike" tropes, you are faced with some hard forensic truths not the least of which is that the candidate, Carl Webb, presented to the world as the Somerton Man, simply does not fit the physical profile recorded by South Australian Police in 1948.

The research and investigation moved past the press speculation stage and onto what is best described as  a 'multi-disciplinary' rebuttal, I made use of some high precision tools nown as 'photogrammetry' together with some  statistical modeling to clearly demonstrate why Carl Webb is physically excluded from being the man found on Somerton Beach.

I. The Scientific "Review Gap"

The identification of the Somerton Man as Carl Webb attracted a great deal of attention and publicity and it was a global media event. However in the world of forensics, a press release is not proof. Since the annocment in July 2022, everyone interested in the case including the academic community has waited for a peer-reviewed publication detailing the raw DNA data and the specific methodologies used to bridge the gap from a "Webb relative" to Carl Webb himself.

As analyzed in a rebuttal I first published in 2024, "Methodological Concerns in the Carl Webb Identification" (Academia.edu), there was a distinct lack of transparency uncovered, critical procedural failures were revealed. Forensic science is built on the foundation of exclusion; if the physical evidence excludes the candidate, the search must continue.

II. The Merchant Marine "Black Hole" (1920s–1939)

Carl Webb’s relative invisibility in Australian records between the early 1920s and WWII suggests a possibility that he may have been absent from Australia, my thought was that he may have joined the merchant marine and become a merchant seaman. I followed up and as the result of research into US freighter logs as well as British Merchant Marine routes, identified a "Charles Webb" an a "Carl Webb" sailing the Orient seaways during this 1920s/1930s time frame.

If true this theory accounts for the sun-bleached hair and deep tan visible in the family group-of-four photograph, traits common to seamen on the Orient routes.

Consider this, by 1947, Carl Webb was estranged from his wife, his parents and his only brother had passed, and with no domestic ties remaining, a return to the sea was a logical, and possible, exit strategy. This would place Carl Webb far from Adelaide during the events of 1948. While this remains a theory at this stage, it provides a much more cohesive explanation for his life's "missing years" than current models.

III. The Height Discrepancy: 5'8" vs. 5'11"

The most glaring inconsistency in the Carl Webb theory is his height. The Somerton Man was measured at 5'11" (180.3 cm) by South Australian Police in December 1948. This was not a casual estimate; it was recorded at the morgue and reinforced during the 1949 Inquest. Conversely, every primary record for Carl Webb tells a different story:

• Richard Webb (Father): Recorded at 5'8" in prison identification records.
• Roy Webb (Brother): Recorded at 5'8" in official Military service records.
• Carl Webb: Proportional analysis of family photography aligns him precisely with his father and brother.

In forensics, a three-inch gap (7.6 cm) in an adult male is not a "margin of error", it is a formal exclusion.

IV. Methodology: The Detailed Multi-Segment Algorithm

To ensure the highest accuracy, I used a tool known as Proportional Fingerprinting. Instead of measuring total height, which can be affected by footwear or posture, we break the subjects into distinct anatomical segments: the cranium, the jawline to chin, the neck, and the upper torso.

Then, by using a rigid, manufactured object, the 6-inch sports shirt collar worn by Roy and Carl, as a constant, we were able to calibrate the image scale with mathematical certainty. If the 6-inch collar resolves correctly on our scale, then Carl’s anatomical segments, which resolve to 5'8", are a straightforward forensic reality.

Exhibit A: Quadrangulated Stature Simulation v2.5

Technical implementation of Proportional Fingerprinting, cross-referencing anatomical segments against a 6-inch industrial constant.

Proportional Constants (Ground Truth):

• Biological: Richard Webb (5'8"), Roy Webb (5'8"), Eliza Webb (5'3")
• Manufactured: 6.0" Shirt Collar (Standard Industrial Metric)

# --- MONTE CARLO PROBABILITY ENGINE (PROPORTIONAL FINGERPRINTING) ---
import numpy as np

data = {
  "Richard": {"h": 68.0, "px": 217}, # Segments: Cranium 45 + Neck 22 + Torso 150
  "Roy":     {"h": 68.0, "px": 216}, # Segments: Cranium 46 + Neck 21 + Torso 149
  "Eliza":   {"h": 63.0, "px": 201}, # Biological Maternal Anchor
  "Collar":  {"h": 6.0,  "px": 19.2}, # Rigid Manufactured Constant
  "Carl":    {"px": 216.5} # Segments: Cranium 45 + Neck 20 + Torso 151.5
}

def run_simulation(iterations=10000):
  results = []
  for _ in range(iterations):
    # Accounting for historical record variance and lens distortion
    s1 = np.random.normal(data["Richard"]["h"], 0.5) / np.random.normal(data["Richard"]["px"], 2)
    s3 = np.random.normal(data["Eliza"]["h"], 0.5) / np.random.normal(data["Eliza"]["px"], 2)
    s4 = np.random.normal(data["Collar"]["h"], 0.1) / np.random.normal(data["Collar"]["px"], 0.5)
    
    # Resulting global scale (Weighted)
    g_scale = (s1 + s3 + (s4 * 2)) / 4
    results.append(np.random.normal(data["Carl"]["px"], 2) * g_scale)
  return np.mean(results), np.percentile(results, [2.5, 97.5])

mean_h, ci = run_simulation()
print(f"Calculated Mean Stature: {int(mean_h//12)}'{mean_h%12:.1f}\"")
print(f"95% Confidence Interval: {int(ci[0]//12)}'{ci[0]%12:.1f}\" to {int(ci[1]//12)}'{ci[1]%12:.1f}\"")

Forensic Exclusion:

The segmented data proves that Carl Webb's biological proportions align with a 5'8" profile. For the candidate to be the 5'11" Somerton Man, these anatomical segments would have to expand beyond human biological norms.

V. The Monte Carlo Stress Test: Why Probability Matters

In forensic mathematics, a Monte Carlo simulation removes human bias by running the calculation 10,000 times, each time introducing randomized variations—such as a 2-pixel measurement error, a slight slouch in posture, or minor uncertainty in historical records.

It proves that even if every single measurement error favoured the opposing claim, Carl Webb still never reaches the height of 5'11". The simulation shows a 95% confidence interval that places Carl Webb between 5'6.7" and 5'9.3". The 5'11" Somerton Man exists entirely outside this mathematical reality.

VI. Technical Exhibit: Segmented Reconstruction

Anatomical Segment	Richard Webb (Anchor)	Roy Webb (Anchor)	Carl Webb (Candidate)
Cranium Height	45px	46px	45px
Chin to Neck Base	22px	21px	20px
Upper Torso	150px	149px	151px
Total Pixels	217px	216px	216px
Recorded Stature	5'8"	5'8"	Calculated: 5'8"

# --- QUADRANGULATED MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ---
data = {
  "Richard": {"h": 68.0, "px": 217},
  "Roy":     {"h": 68.0, "px": 216},
  "Eliza":   {"h": 63.0, "px": 201},
  "Collar":  {"h": 6.0,  "px": 19.2},
  "Carl":    {"px": 216}
}
# Simulation Result: 95% Confidence Interval 5'6.7" to 5'9.3"

VII. The Geometric Stress Test

A 'fun fact', for Carl Webb to appear 5'8" while actually being 5'11", he would need to be standing approximately five inches closer to the camera lens than his father. Visual examination of the focal plane, the alignment of the subjects in the family group of four, and the environmental shadows confirms that all subjects are standing on a single, unified horizontal plane. This renders the "depth-of-field" explanation by others for a 3-inch discrepancy physically impossible.

VIII. Contextualizing the Lineage: Richard Webb’s Records

Richard Webb’s 5'8" benchmark is the "ground truth" of this study. While his prison record for breaking and entering must have been a very difficult period for the family, it provided a high-integrity forensic record. Prison clerks measured for identification; they did not estimate. This verified, third-party measurement remains unchanged by time or bias and confirms the family 'stature' or height.

IX. Conclusion: An Unsolved Mystery

The 3-inch gap between the body found on Somerton Beach and Carl Webb is a formal forensic exclusion. When combined with the lack of peer-reviewed DNA evidence and the possibility that Carl Webb returned to a life at sea by 1947, the case against him is overwhelming. The Tamam Shud blog remains dedicated to the evidence. Until a peer-reviewed academic article addresses these physical and procedural impossibilities, the case of the Somerton Man cannot be considered closed.