TIME & TIDE
On the morning of December 1, 1948, According to the evidence the Somerton Man was found and his body had not been in the water, the body was damp but not soaked. However the ocean tells a different story. In this exclusive extract from the soon to be published Somerton Secrets book, Doctor John Luick, Tidal expert applied a technique known as 'hydrodynamic modeling' plus some historical weather data to reconstruct the beach environment on that day. The results create serious questions about the long accepted version. According to some new facts: a Force 5 wind and a Spring Tide would have inundated the death scene. The man was not there when the water rose.
The Reconstruction
The image of the beach scene is etched into Australian history: a man lying peacefully on the sand, head propped against the seawall, legs crossed, a half-smoked cigarette resting on his collar. The police report paints a picture of a relatively quiet death, a man who had probably walked down the steps in the evening, sat watching the sea, and slipped away into the night.
Or was that really the case?
For decades now, we've been looking at the man and ignoring the stage upon which he was found.
The beach is not a static canvas. It is a dynamic, violent system governed by the laws of fluid dynamics and gravity. When we strip away the witness statements and look purely at the environmental data for the night of November 30th, 1948, a stark new image emerges. The physics of Gulf St. Vincent simply do not appear to allow for the "official" "time worn' version of events.
In the deep-dive analysis for Somerton Secrets, I tested the "Dry Zone" hypothesis, the idea that a man could lie dry and undisturbed at the base of the seawall throughout the night. The ocean, as it turns out, is the most reliable witness of all. So, what does the data tell us?
1. The Geometry of the Scene:
To understand why the Somerton Man’s position looks to be impossible, we first have to review and understand the geometry of the beach in 1948. To start with it was not the wide, sandy expanse we might see today after decades of replenishment. It was a constrained, eroded coastline. In facte there are images that show just that.
Let's start with a fixed data point: 3.84 meters.
This is the vertical drop from the street level (the Esplanade) to the sand at the base of the infrastructure. To access the beach, you had to navigate a steep wooden staircase. I meticulously reconstructed the site and it suggests these steps consisted of approximately 22 risers or steps, with a step height of 7 inches per each
This vertical dimension is then the first 'forensic' filter. The Somerton Man was found with a smart suit and, crucially, his shoes polished and clean. To reach his resting place voluntarily, he would have had to descend nearly four meters, then traverse the sand to the seawall. Yet, there were no scuff marks on his shoes, and no sand ground into the welts.
But the real issue isn't how he got down there; it's what happened while he was there as you will read.
2. The Tidal Engine
The Gulf of St. Vincent is a unique body of water. It's known for its "tidal resonance", the natural 'slosh' of the water in the gulf matches the timing of the tides from the Southern Ocean, and that effectively amplifies their height.
On December 1, 1948, the astronomical conditions were perfectly aligned for maximum water movement. It was a New Moon. In oceanographic terms, this generates a "Spring Tide." This is when the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon align, reinforcing each other to pull the ocean to its highest possible point.
Unlike the well known "Dodge Tides" of South Australia, where the water stands still, this night was active. The predicted astronomical high tide for Outer Harbor was 2.74 meters, or approximately 9 feet in old money.
If the sea had been calm, perhaps the water would have stayed just low enough. But the sea was not calm. There was a fresh SW wind that night.
3. The Meteorological Force: The Wind Setup
So, we have two things happening simultaneously, the moon lifts the water, and then the wind pushes it. The weather records for that night confirm a fresh South-Westerly (SW) wind blowing at Force 5 on the Beaufort Scale. (That's between 28 and 35 kmh)
This is, I believe, the critical variable that the original investigation missed. A South-Westerly wind blows directly into the mouth of Gulf St. Vincent. It travels over a long "fetch" of open water, dragging the surface layer with it. Because of the 'Coriolis' effect in the Southern Hemisphere, (In simple terms, the Coriolis Effect makes things (like planes or currents of air) traveling long distances around the Earth appear to move at a curve as opposed to a straight line). It's a pretty weird phenomenon, but the cause is simple: Different parts of the Earth move at different speeds.this water is deflected to the left trapping it against the eastern metropolitan beaches, including Somerton.
Thactual phenomenon is called "Wind Setup" or storm surge.
Using 'hydrodynamic' equations for shallow water stress, we can calculate that a Force 5 wind sustained over that duration would add a "surge" of approximately 0.35 meters to the water height.
When we add the surge to the tide, the "Still Water Level" rises to 1.64 meters above the Australian Height Datum. We're getting close but even that isn't the final number.
4. 4:34 AM, The Inundation Event
At approximatley 04:23 AM on December 1st, the tide at Somerton peaked. ( Note that the 'high tide' at Somerton occurs approximately 11 minutes before it occurs at Outer Harbour. I have taken into account the minor change to tide height in the calculations)
We must now account for the waves. A Force 5 wind generates significant wave action—choppy, messy, energy-rich waves. When these waves travel across the shallow sand and hit a vertical obstruction like the Somerton seawall, they do not dissipate. They reflect.
This creates a phenomenon known as Clapotis. All that means is that the incoming wave meets the reflected wave, and for a moment, the water height at the wall doubles.
The Calculation of Inundation:
Base Tide: +1.29m AHD
Wind Surge: +0.35m
Wave Run-up/Clapotis: +0.60m (Conservative estimate)
Total Effective Water Level: ~2.24 meters AHD at the low sea wall
Based on geomorphological surveys of the beach profile, the sand level at the base of the wall sits well below this 2.24-meter mark.
This means that at 4:23 AM, the spot where the Somerton Man was found was not a "Dry Zone." It was a "Swash Zone." The water would have been lapping against the concrete wall, spraying foam, and soaking the sand. Hence the Poliuce officers statement that the sand around the body was not unduly distruebed' that happens when water washes over the sand.
5. A Control Event: April 2014
The theoretical physics of the situation is one thing; observational proof is another. To verify this model, a "Control Event" was needed, a modern date with identical conditions.
On April 2, 2014, Adelaide experienced a New Moon Spring Tide almost identical to the 1948 event, accompanied by active weather. By a stroke of sheer luck, a team of people had been monitoring tidal events at precisely the same location adjacent to the beach at Somerton Photographic evidence from that morning shows the water completely inundating the beach, crashing against the rock armor and seawalls along the coast. The "beach" as a walkable, dry surface effectively ceased to exist at high tide.
While sea-level rise (approx. 11cm since 1948) accounts for some of this, the margin of error is so large that the conclusion holds: if the water hit the wall in 2014, it was perilously close, if not inundating, in 1948.
6. The Impossible Timeline
This brings us back to the body on the beach.
When the Somerton Man was found at 6:30 AM. He was said to be damp. His clothes were not sodden with salt water. His hair was not matted with sea spray. His shoes were not caked in wet sand.
If we accept the official police theory that he arrived the previous evening and died there during the night, we must accept a physical impossibility: that a man lay through a Force 5, Fresh Wind Spring Tide inundation without getting wet.
The Physics
The environmental evidence forces us to reject the suggested official timeline.
7:00 PM: Witnesses see a man. He is alive.
8:00 PM - 4:00 AM: The beach becomes dark, windy, and eventually wet.
4:34 AM: The tide peaks, inundating the wall base.
6:15/6:30 AM: A dry body is found.
There is only one solution that satisfies the physical constraints: The man was not there at 4:23 AM.
The man seen in the evening before, likely left, perhaps walking away up the steps when the weather turned. The body found in the morning was a different body, or the same man returned but he was not there at 4.23 am on the morning of December 1st 1948.
The Proof of the Pudding As they Say, is in the eating:
"I have been discussing the circumstances on the footing that the body found on the morning of the 1st December was that of the man seen in the evening of the 30th November. But there is really no proof that this was the case... If the body of the deceased was not that of the man mentioned and if the body had been taken to the place where it was found, the difficulties disappear."
Conclusion: The Post-Tide Placement
This environmental reconstruction points heavily toward a "dump site" scenario.
The 3.84-meter vertical drop from the road offers a perfect concealment. It is highly probable that the body was kept elsewhere during the high tide, perhaps in a vehicle on the Esplanade or in a sheltered spot nearby, perhaps even concealed on the grassy embankment?
Then, in the quiet window between 5:00 AM and 6:00 AM, as the tide receded and the water dropped back from the wall, the body was carried down the wooden steps. This explains the clean shoes (he didn't walk), the dry clothes (he missed the tide), and the specific positioning.
The Somerton Man didn't simply "end up" on the beach. He was placed there, carefully and deliberately, in the wake of the retreating tide. The ocean didn't take him; someone gave him to the shore.
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