SOMERTON MAN, THE TAMAMSHUD MYSTERY; A LITTLE LESS MYSTERY…

 ...SAPOL UPDATE:

In early December, SAPOL made public an update on the progress of the Forensic Analysis of the exhumed remains of the Somerton Man. The news came from SAPOL Media Section and was picked up on by Pete Bowes.

Essentially forensic work on the DNA has been completed as this excerpt below shows:

‘Since the exhumation of the remains of Somerton Man two years ago, SAPOL in partnership with the AFP and FSSA,  has engaged with forensic specialists here, interstate, and overseas to assist in the identification process. The DNA work on the Somerton Man’s remains was recently completed with analysis of these results to be reported to the State Coroner in the final report along with completed Forensic Anthropology and Forensic Odontology reports, and results of some outstanding forensic analysis that will be completed soon.’

As is par for the course with the Somerton Man case, answers generate more questions. My eye was drawn to the following words:

1. 'SAPOL in partnership with the AFP and FSSA, have engaged with forensic specialists here, interstate and overseas to assist in the identification process.' :

The enlistment of local and interstate forensics specialists one can understand. But why overseas specialists? The options are that firstly, a preliminary identification may have been made and that identification is of a person from a country other than Australia, Secondly it could be that a specific problem with the examination arose and it needed an overseas specialist to help resolve it. It is also possible that they are referring to Astrea, the company that did the DNA analysis on the single hair sample provided by Professor Abbott which led to the Professor's claim that Carl Webb was the Somerton Man. The Professor used an engineering technique on the data provided by Astrea to arrive at his identification of the man as Carl Webb. The technique was 'imputation', here's an excerpt from an article on the subject:

3.1.3 Single imputation methods

In a single imputation method the missing data are filled by some means and the resulting completed data set is used for inference. Mean imputation (MI) is one such method in which the mean of the observed values for each variable is computed and the missing values for that variable are imputed by this mean. This method can lead into severely biased estimates even if data are MCAR (see, e.g., Jamshidian and Bentler, 1999). Clearly, if the number of missing values in a variable is large, and these values are imputed by the observed sample mean, then the resulting variance estimate for that variable can be severely underestimated.

This link provides further information and the article:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/mathematics/imputation-method#:~:text=Mean%20imputation%20(MI)%20is%20one,Jamshidian%20and%20Bentler%2C%201999).

2. The DNA work on the Somerton Man’s remains was recently completed with analysis of these results to be reported to the State Coroner in the final report along with completed Forensic Anthropology and Forensic Odontology reports, and results of some outstanding forensic analysis that will be completed soon.

Anthropologist Report: Through the established methods, a forensic anthropologist can aid law enforcement in establishing a profile of the unidentified remains. The profile includes sex, age, ancestry, height, length of time since death, and sometimes the evaluation of trauma observed on bones. This report whilst not specifically mentioning DNA does refer to the deceased’s ancestry. Note that the person’s age and height are also included. The height issue is of particular importance as the height of the Somerton Man was recorded at the time as being 5 feet 11 inches as measured on the mortuary slab. There is however a level of uncertainty regarding the height of the man Carl Webb who, it has been claimed' is the Somerton Man. A photograph that purportedly includes Carl Webb gives the impression that he was closer to the height of his brother, Roy Webb who, from his service record, stood at 5 feet inches in height. It should also be noted that both parents of Carl and Roy Webb were of quite short stature.

ODONTOLOGY REPORT: The forensic investigation should explain orodental findings in detail that can be used for identification (age, sex, ethnic group, and occupation if possible). The report must explain if the death could be due to trauma or any family or other violence that led to any injuries or trauma to the teeth, jaws, and any other oral and maxillofacial part. The possible causes should be given, too, if possible. The forensic odontology identification report should be understandable to a general audience (i.e., it should be written using layperson’s language.)

The Odontology and Anthropology reports are of course equally important with the aspect of the teeth being critical, it is the dental chart alone taken by Dr Dwyer at the autopsy that links the body of the man on the beach to the exhumed remains.

Perhaps what wasn't mentioned tells us more about the investigation. The press release specifically made mention of DNA specialists being either here in Australia or overseas.  Given the significant amount of publicity surrounding the DNA discovery and the use of leading-edge technology, it seems unusual for a DNA specialist not to be specifically named but there could be a simple explanation for that.